Sunday, January 22, 2017

89th Academy Awards Nomination Predictions

Following predictions are in order of most likely to be nominated based on haka haka:

Best Picture
La La Land (Lionsgate)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon / Roadside Attractions)
Moonlight (A24)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Hidden Figures (20th Century Fox)
Fences (Paramount)
Arrival (Paramount)
Lion (The Weinstein Company)

La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight are shoo-ins. Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures are strong contenders,and the rest seems likely to get nominated based on the precursors. Tempted to include Martin Scorsese's Silence here because AMPAS loves him, but I think Lion and Hidden Figures stole its thunder. Me thinks it could still get a nomination.

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Chazelle is safe here and he's also going to win this. It's only a matter of who's going to get nominated alongside him. I'm banking on Jenkins as a strong contender for Moonlight. Same with Denis Villeneuve which would be his first nomination in this category after his series of great movies. Lonergan and Mackenzie could be in danger, as Lion's Garth Davis and again Martin Scorsese could sneak in.

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Denzel Washington, Fences
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

I'm confident with Affleck, Gosling and Garfield's chances. Same with Denzel. Not confident with Gyllenhaal's chances at all but I refuse to believe that Captain Fantastic will get any Oscar nod so I'm not predicting Viggo Mortensen here. In fact, I'll predict Tom Hanks as Sully first before him which I know is not a wise choice since Captain Fantastic is unexpectedly doing well in the precursors.

Best Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

The most interesting category hands down. Emma Stone is a lock, and I guess Natalie Portman too. But I'm less confident with Huppert and Streep even if I also think they are locks at this point. Huppert's Golden Globe win is a surprise for many since no one was sure she'd win a televised awards but the fact that she did, beating Natalie Portman in the process says a lot for her chances. Meryl Streep's Cecile B. Demille's speech surely helped her chances without taking away the fact that she really deserves to get nominated for her performance in Florence Foster Jenkins. Now the 5th slot is what's interesting. If I would take the safe route, I'd choose Amy Adams for Arrival. This is one of her best performances imo and the movie is well loved. In the end, I chose Taraji P. Henson which is probably laughable, but if she gets in it's only because of how well received Hidden Figures was especially during the peak of Oscar nomination. Think of it as a Bradley Cooper kind of nomination in American Sniper, or Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook. All came in late into the game but didn't stop them from getting nominated. Of course, there's still Ruth Negga who benefits from last year's OscarsSoWhite controversy and Focus Features' campaign.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

All except Kevin Costner received nominations in the Oscar precursors. The only reason he's there is because of Hidden Figures success and Manchester by the Sea's Lucas Hedges might be too young for the voters. We all know AMPAS is more generous in rewarding young women than young men.

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

Octavia Spencer is more likely to get nominated than Monae but no guts, no glory!

Best Original Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
The Lobster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Film Editing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water

Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini

Best Foreign Language Film
Toni Erdmann, Germany
Land of Mine, Denmark
Paradise, Russia
Tanna, Australia
A Man Called Ove, Switzerland

Best Documentary Feature
O.J. Made in America
I Am Not Your Negro
Fire at Sea

Best Cinematography
La La Land
Hell or High Water

Best Original Score
La La Land

Best Original Song
"City of Stars" La La Land
"How Far I'll Go" Moana
"Audition" La La Land
"Runnin" Hidden Figures

"Drive it Like You Stole It" Sing Street

Best Production Design
La La Land
Hail, Ceasar
Fantastic Beasts and where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Costume Design
La La Land
Hail, Ceasar
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One

Best Make-up and Hairstyling
Hail, Ceasar
Florence Foster Jenkins
A Man Called Ove

Best Sound Mixing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One

Best Sound Editing
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One
Deepwater Horizon

13 - La La Land
8 - Moonlight
6 - Hell or High Water
5 - Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
4 - Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 - Hail, Ceasar, Jackie, Rogue One
2 - A Man Called Ove, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, Sully, Zootopia